For the time analysis part of this exercise, here are the assumptions I’m going with:

• Transfers between any two segments have a 2 min window on each side of %0 efficiency time, cause it takes a while to get situated
• Bus: %30
• Bart: %50
• Driving: %0

Also, I’m considering walking to be ‘light exercise’ and biking to be ‘moderate exercise’. All times are AM, all money in USD.

The Route, Driving

• Walk, house -> Car: 5 min
• Drive to Work: 45 min (24 miles) according to google maps in traffic

Direct Monetary Cost

Assuming 30mpg and $3.00 per gallon of gas:
24/30 * 3 = $2.40

Time Analysis

0 min effective 100% efficiency time
45 min wasted time
5 min light exercise

The Route, via Transit

• Walk, house -> Bart station: 20 min
• Bart, Civic Center ->; Colma: 6:44 -> 7:01, $3.25
• SamTrans 118: Colma -> Linda Mar Park and Ride: 7:05 -> 7:24, $2
• SamTrans 294: Linda Mar Park and Ride -> stop near HMB airport: 7:25 -> 7:46 $2
• Walk, HMB airport stop -> Work: 10min

Direct Monetary Cost

3.25 + 2.00 + 2.00 = $7.25

Time Analysis

Effective 100% Efficiency Time

(bart) + (samtrans 118) + (samtrans 294) =
(12 – 2*2) * 0.3 + (17 – 2*2) * 0.5 + (19 – 2*2) * 0.3 + (21 – 2*2) * 0.3 =
18 min effective 100% efficiency time

Exercise Time

(walk 1) + (walk 2) = 20 + 10 = 30 min light exercise

Wasted Time

Total Travel Time – 100% effective efficiency time – Exercise Time =
(1 hr 34 min) – (18 min) – (30 min) = 46 min wasted time

The Route, via Cycling and Transit

• Prep for ride, 10 min
• Ride, home to Linda Mar Park and ride: 70 min
• SamTrans 294: Linda Mar Park and Ride -> stop just over devil’s slide: 7:25 -> 7:35, $2
• Ride to work: 12min

Direct Monetary Cost

SamTrans 294: $2.00

Time Analysis

Effective 100% Efficiency Time

(samtrans 1) = (10 – 2*2) * 0.3 = 6 * 0.3 ~= 2 min effective 100% efficiency time

Exercise Time

(bike 1) + (bike 2) = 70 + 12 = 82 min moderate exercise

Wasted Time

Total Travel Time – 100% effective efficiency time – Exercise Time =
(1 hr 42 min) – (2 min) – (82 min) = 18 min wasted time

So who wins? Well, it’s clear that plain transit does not win – it costs the most, wastes almost as much time as driving and is the least reliable. Clearly, transit here attracts no ‘choice riders’.

Between driving and biking + transit, the key factor is how much value is placed on moderate exercise time. The direct cost of both routes is similar, and while biking + transit wastes less time (18 min vs. 45 min) the total amount of moderate exercise time is perhaps excessive at 82 min. So this one’s gonna get called as a draw.

Final Results

• Transit + Cycling: 0.5
• Driving: 0.5
• Transit: 0

This actually reflects nicely on one of the things I like most about the internet. For a lot of stuff, it lowers the bar to participation – and civic/government stuff is a prime example. There are some ~350k people who ride Muni every day. But only a few dozen, (sometimes non-representative) riders actually go to the meetings and tell the people making the decisions (who too often don’t actually use the systems themselves) what they think is best. But in this brave new world, with the internet, some 650 people have written emails to the mayor already. (Yes, I just referenced a comment on a blog post as a source, sue me.) Now, 650 >> a few dozen. That’s awesome. Unfortunately, 350k >> 650, but let’s take another look at these numbers 10 years down the road.

If you use Muni, please consider taking a few minutes and dumping your thoughts about Muni’s situation on the mayor and the SFMTA board. Here’s the fruits of my evening Caltrain ride.

To: gavin.newsom@sfgov.org, sfmtabudget@sfmta.com
From: Mike Fogel
Subject: cuts to muni are not the answer

Dear Mayor Newsom:

Over New Years Eve, while walking home a young man assaulted me in attempt to get at my wallet. He didn’t get my wallet, but he did separate my right shoulder and send me to the ER with blood draining down my face.

The result was I found myself suddenly dependent on Muni for basic transportation. Previously, I rarely used Muni – only when biking or walking was not an option for some reason.

Muni ridership is often broken into two groups: ‘choice riders’ and ‘transit-dependent riders’. But the reality is this is a false dichotomy. At one point or another, we all find ourselves to be ‘transit-dependent’ riders.

It is said that a good estimate the health of a community is to look at how it treats those most in need. To remain healthy, our city needs Muni stronger and faster than ever – not weaker and more crowded. A strong Muni is an essential part of our city, without which we cannot grow.

I urge you to look to cutting other, non-essential luxury services our city provides for funding the current Muni shortfall.

Thank you for your time.

Michael Fogel

All times AM, all money in USD (duh).

The Route, via Transit

• Walk, house -> bus stop: 3 min
• SacRT, bus: 6:35 -> 6:50, $2.50
• Amtrak, capitol corridor, Sacramento -> Richmond: 7:00 -> 8:25, $13.60 (10-ride pass)
• Bart, Richmond -> Mlibrae: 8:42 -> 9:51, $5.31
• Caltrain, Milbrae -> Palo Alto: 9:55 -> 10:25, $4.25
• Stanford Shuttle: 10:30 -> 10:40, free
• Walk, shuttle stop -> class: 3min

Direct Monetary Cost

2.50 + 13.60 + 5.31 + 4.25 = $25.66

Time Analysis

Percent Efficiency Assumptions

• Transfers/walking: %0, including 2 min window on each side cause it takes a while to get situated on bus/train
• Bus/shuttle: %30
• Bart: %50
• Caltrain: %70
• Amtrak: %90

Effective 100% Efficiency Time

(sacrt) + (amtrak) + (bart) + (caltrain) + (stanford shuttle) =
(15 – 2*2) * 0.3 + (85 – 2*2) * 0.9 + (69 – 2*2) * 0.5 + (30 – 2*2) * 0.7 + (10 – 2*2) * 0.3 =
11 * 0.3 + 81 * 0.9 + 65 * 0.5 + 26 * 0.7 + 6 * 0.3 =
128.7 min ~= 2 hrs 9 min

Wasted Time

Total Travel Time – 100% effective efficiency time =
(4 hrs 13 min) – (2 hrs 9 min) = 2 hrs 4 min

The Route, Driving

• Walk to car, 3 min
• Drive @ rush hour, Sacramento -> Stanford: 2 hrs 50 mins, 124 miles (src: google maps)
• Park car and walk to class: 15 min, $11

Direct Monetary Cost

Assumptions

• 30 mpg
• $3.00 per gallon for gas
• bridge toll: $4.00
• ignoring all other car costs – they’re not ‘direct’ (ie. you don’t pay them right then)

Calculation

124 / 30 * 3.00 + 11.00 + 4.00 = $27.40

Wasted Time

3 min + (2 hrs 50 min) + 15 min = 3 hrs 8 min

Conclusions

Taking the trip via transit rather than driving saves $1.74 (oh boy!) and 1 hour, 4 minutes of time. If we were to add in the full costs of owning an automobile (AAA estimate: ~52.2 cents/mile) then the monetary cost for driving rises to $79.73, thus implying a monetary savings of $54.07 for taking the trip via transit, rather than driving. Bam! Headshot.

Commute Mode DeathMatch Leaderboard

• Transit: 1 (headshot)
• Driving: 0

Coming soon: ‘biking + transit’ jumps into the rumble!

But, what about the tourists? Will someone please think of the tourists? How are they going to get from Powell, to Civic Center, to Alamo Square, then out to the Museums?

Have no fear, the H is here!

Muni’s next historic streetcar line, right after the E and the extension of the F over across Fort Mason.

And what’s most impressive, is that this is in spite of Stanford’s parking pricing structure.

Parking pricing? Who cares? Well, turns out this is one very key knob (some would argue that it’s the best knob) we have to help push us away from foreign oil, global warming, childhood asthma, chronic obesity and all those other happy products of our big bad-ass car culture.

To understand how Stanford’s parking pricing is such a powerful knob that is currently twisted the wrong way, it helps to look at a more-or-less typical case study. Let’s consider a hypothetical commuter, call her… “Jane Student” and let’s say like many Stanford students, she chooses to live up in San Francisco and commute down, for reasons like quality of life, culture, etc. Let’s say Jane has a car, but plans on taking the local commuter rail, Caltrain, about half the time.

At Stanford, there are two primary ‘zones’ for commuter parking: ‘A’ and ‘C’. ‘A’ is the good, close lots and costs about 2.5 times what ‘C’ does. You generally only find metered spots adjacent to the ‘A’ lots. Everything that holds true for ‘A’ also holds true for ‘C’, so for simplicity, we’re going to assume Jane doesn’t want to park a bus ride away from class, so we’re only going to consider ‘A’.

Now, to pay for her parking, Jane has three options:

• Metered parking: $1.50 an hour
• Daily permit: $11
• Monthly permit: $60.50

When Jane sits down to consider this situation, the first thing she does is figure out what’s cheapest for her. Well, Jane is on campus usually about 7 hours a day. If she were to drive everyday (20 days a month), then her options cost per month:

• Metered parking: 1.50*7*20 = $210
• Daily permit: 11*20 = $220
• Monthly permit: $60.50

Whoa! $60 versus $220? That’s quite a difference. But now Jane knows she’d rather take the train some days. So how many days a month would she have to drive to make the monthly permit worth it? Well, 60.50/11 = 5.5 and 60.50/1.50/7 = 5.76. So if Jane drives 6 or more days a month, it’s worth it for her to get a monthly permit. Since Jane plans on doing about 50-50 train/car, she goes ahead and buys a monthly permit.

Now, let’s consider Jane’s decision making process each morning when she’s choosing whether to take the local commuter rail, Caltrain, or drive alone.

Costs to take Caltrain:

• Bike to Station: 15 min, Train: 45 min, Bike to Class: 15 min => 30 min of exercise, and 45 min of semi-productive time
• Two Caltrain 3-zone tickets: 2 * 6 = $12

Costs to drive alone:

• Walk to car: 5 min, Drive: 45 min, Walk to class: 10 min => 15 min of light exercise, 45 min of wasted time
• Gas each way is 40 miles at 30 mpg and gas is now $2.00 a gallon => 2 * 40 / 30 * 2 = $5.33

(Note that medium and long-term costs like insurance, depreciation, health, environmental etc do not factor into Jane’s daily decision making process. Medium and long-term costs and benefits will factor into Jane’s medium and long-term decisions, but will be, generally, inconsequential for her short-term decision making.)

Wow, not only does it take longer for Jane to take the train, but it costs her more! This means Jane’s default behavior will be to drive. We can expect Jane’s commute to be dominated by solo driving with sprinkled Caltrain.

FAIL. That’s not what Jane wants, that’s not what Stanford wants, and that certainly isn’t what our community as a whole wants.

Let’s consider what would happen if Stanford implemented a different parking pricing structure. The following could be implemented with zero costly infrastructure change.

Proposed:

• Metered Parking: $1.25 an hour
• Daily permit: $8
• Monthly permit: $125

Now, the following holds true for our wonderful Jane:

• A daily permit is only worth it if you’re planning on parking 7 hours or longer that day.
• A monthly permit is only worth it if you’re planning on parking 16 days or more that month.

All of a sudden the bar to buying a monthly permit is much higher. So Jane, who expects to go for a 50-50 mode share, now will no longer buy a monthly permit. She’ll buy a series of daily permits to use whenever she chooses to drive. Now, let’s consider Jane’s new decision making process each morning when deciding to take the train or drive alone.

Costs to take Caltrain (no change from above):

• Bike to Station: 15 min, Ride: 45 min, Bike to Class: 15 min => 30 min of exercise, and 45 min of semi-productive time
• Two Caltrain 3-zone tickets: 2 * 6 = $12

Costs to drive alone:

• Walk to car: 5 min, Drive: 45 min, Walk to class: 10 min => 15 min of light exercise, 45 min of wasted time
• Gas each way is 40 miles at 30 mpg and gas is now $2.00 a gallon => 2 * 40 / 30 * 2 = $5.33
• Parking: $8

Bam. Jane’s total direct, tangible cost to drive alone each morning is now $13.33 – higher than the $12 it costs for Jane to take Caltrain. That, coupled with the benefit of reclaimed time Caltrain affords Jane changes Jane’s default behavior. Jane’s default behavior is now to take Caltrain. We can expect Jane will generally take the train, and occasionally drive.

Given that Stanford’s all about going green, this is puzzling. Thoughts? Anybody from Stanford Parking and Transportation out there with any deeper insight into this situation?